(This is a developing story.)
If you’re hoping to get a job next summer, there’s a chance you’ll have a harder time than you think. The trade war brewing between Canada and the U.S. could boost inflation and make employment opportunities scarcer, especially for young students and workers. With the potential for higher prices and slower job growth, the effects of the tariffs may be felt by many.
Trump Tariffs: Some Background
Donald Trump has been pushing tariffs on foreign goods since his first term as president, but Canada has largely avoided the full brunt of them—until now. This time, the impact is far broader, with a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports, announced on the 1st of February 2025. Trump has also targeted Mexico, China, the European Union, and others. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods were first set to impose in February, then postponed to March 4th after negotiations over border security and economic concerns. Whether it’s due to strategy or simply second-guessing his decision, the effects of the threat of tariffs are already in play.
Impacts on Business (And the Rest of Us)
The U.S. and Canada have one of the most deeply integrated trade relationships in the world. Tariffs, however, disrupt that flow, making imported goods more expensive and triggering uncertainty in industries that rely on cross-border trade, such as Canada’s automotive and energy industries.
Some Canadian companies are already reacting to the threat of tariffs. When businesses anticipate financial strain, the first response is often to put the brakes on hiring. Additionally, certain home builders have already put projects on hold due to rising material costs, despite our country’s ongoing housing crisis. Other industries—especially manufacturing, retail, and food services—could see slowed hiring or even job cuts if the tariffs cause a drop in demand. If businesses aren’t expanding and American importers don’t purchase the goods of Canadian exporters due to raised prices, that means lower economic activity, leading to fewer jobs and part-time openings.
Red Herrings and Self-Inflicted Wounds
It’s worth considering Trump’s reasons for the tariffs, as well as the impacts. Though the president claims the tariffs will curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration, there is little to no evidence that this is true. The other reason Trump gave for the tariffs is that they will strengthen the U.S. economy, manufacturing and employment, although the consensus among economists is that the tariffs will hurt both sides. American companies that rely on Canadian goods will face increased costs, which could result in higher prices for consumers and businesses.
Trade War: the Home Front
Meanwhile, Canada may experience a significant reduction in gross domestic product (GDP). As the prices of Canadian exports rise, U.S. demand for these goods could drop, leading to reduced production. This reduction in economic activity could trigger a recession. A recession in Canada is defined by the contraction of the economy for two consecutive quarters. Canada has vowed to retaliate with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on U.S. goods, which increases the price of goods imported from the U.S. There appears to be a consensus among Canadians that although this will cause economic pain, this is a better choice than not at all responding to Trump’s move.
One of the hardest-hit sectors will likely be auto manufacturing. Canadian-built cars and parts cross the border multiple times before completion; a 25% tariff at each step could make vehicles drastically more expensive. If these tariffs are applied across the board, per Trump’s threats, and without any exceptions, the immediate response may be for the auto industries in both countries to come to a near standstill. Once operations adjust to the tariffs, factories may move from Canada to the U.S. and vehicles on both sides of the border will be significantly more expensive. The Canadian dollar is also expected to fall, making foreign imports pricier and fueling inflation.
No Place Like Home
With uncertainty looming, some Canadians are already adjusting their spending habits. Many are choosing to buy from Canadian or non-American businesses rather than supporting U.S. companies like Starbucks, Amazon, or Whole Foods. Canadians are also cancelling their U.S. travel plans in droves. Whether or not it’s driven by true patriotism for Canada as a country or simply to spite the U.S., there’s a growing recognition that keeping money within Canada’s economy may soften the blow of a downturn.
How to Navigate the Storm
The next few months could bring economic turbulence, and the effects will be felt by everyone. Whether it’s the price of strawberries, automobiles or dishwashers, rising prices, fewer job opportunities, or a slowing housing market, the impact of these tariffs will reach everyday Canadians. For students hoping to make some money this summer, the reality is clear: the job market might be tightening before the season even begins. Still, it’s hard to say what will happen between now and this summer and whether or not Trump will stay true to his threats. The best thing we can do right now is to prepare for these potential challenges by developing contingency plans, such as:
Seeking self-employment opportunities such as tutoring, gardening and landscaping
Seeking short-term contract work
Networking with friends and family to find opportunities in the hidden job market
Volunteering, participating in camps or other activities instead of working
Pursuing studies through summer programs at post-secondary institutions or elsewhere
Rescheduling travel to non-U.S. destinations
Adopting an entrepreneurial mindset–create your own opportunities!
Out of the confusion and disruption of the current situation, new opportunities will arise. It is entirely likely that the Canadian economy will emerge more self-reliant and resilient. Meanwhile, south of the border, Trump seems to have painted himself into a corner: by imposing tariffs, his own constituents will be some of the most negatively impacted people. Either way, he will be damaging his prospects for the 2026 midterm elections.
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