The world is no stranger to egregious methods of population control. From compulsory sterilization in the name of eugenics, such as in the case of Nazi Germany, to the forced sterilization of nearly 4 million Indians as recently as 2014, the bloody wounds left by barbaric population planning remain fresh. When scrutinizing the ethics of demographic regulation, China’s infamous one-child policy remains a controversial topic.
Following China’s unprecedented population growth in 1980, president Deng Xiaoping established the one-child policy as a means to stifle the surge. Couples were limited to a single child, and those who failed to comply with restrictions were often faced with hefty fines and forced abortions. In the event that families did not pay the fine, the additional children would be excluded from the national system, thus barring the offspring from accessing essential services such as education and health care. The extent to which these strict regulations were enforced is exemplified through the fact that even celebrities and government officials were not exempt from severe retribution for breaking the policy. For instance, world-renowned director Zhang Yimou faced a fine of 7.48 million yuan—nearly 1.5 million CAD—for having three children.
On January 1, 2016, the Chinese government, having realized that its vice-like grip over population growth has resulted in crippling demographic issues, upped the limit on producing children to two per family. The country’s skewed population structure consisted of a shrinking workforce, coupled with an overwhelmingly high dependency ratio due to its rapidly aging populace. These issues gave rise to the “4-2-1” phenomenon: four grandparents and two parents dependent on one child. As a result, the working age population was tasked with increased financial burdens, exacerbated by China’s collectivist culture in which families are expected to care for their elders. Apart from a disproportionately large geriatric population, China developed a significant gender imbalance due to sex-selective abortions and infanticide, stemming from the social preference for male children. This preference is deeply rooted in tradition, as males were the inheritors of the family bloodline, and are seen as having higher wage-earning capacities.
However, the two-child policy proved insufficient in restoring balance to China’s dilapidated population structure. Many young couples remained non-incentivized to produce additional offspring due to the lack of childcare infrastructure, such as parental leave, available in the country. When a 2020 census revealed China’s fertility rate to be 1.3 births per 1000 women—far below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1—the government decided to make further adjustments. In May of 2021, the country signed into law its most recent bill surrounding population control: the three-child policy. While this change represents a step in the right direction, analysts surmise that the improved policy alone will not reverse China’s crooked demographic. Instead, the nation could focus on incentivizing its young population to reproduce, perhaps through government subsidy.
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